Saburtalo 2-1 Samgurali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Georgia - Erovnuli Liga, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
14%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.5pp
24%
Away Win
16%
+7.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.8pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saburtalo EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Samgurali EU Bookmakers 20%
-6% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +5%
2.00/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.55
-1% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
340 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saburtalo
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Samgurali
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.03.2025 Samgurali Samgurali 0-0 HT 0-0 Saburtalo GUR
08.12.2024 Saburtalo 1-1 HT 1-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
30.09.2024 Samgurali Samgurali 3-4 HT 1-2 Saburtalo GUR
01.06.2024 Saburtalo 1-2 HT 0-1 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
15.04.2024 Samgurali Samgurali 2-3 HT 2-1 Saburtalo GUR
23.11.2023 Saburtalo 2-2 HT 2-0 Samgurali Samgurali GUR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saburtalo
2-1
AWAY Samgurali
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Saburtalo vs Samgurali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Saburtalo nicked a narrow win over Samgurali 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Saburtalo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Saburtalo had 56% of the ball to Samgurali's 44%, shots finished 11-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saburtalo had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Saburtalo and 1.67 for Samgurali.

What was the final score of Saburtalo vs Samgurali?

Saburtalo 2-1 Samgurali in the Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saburtalo vs Samgurali?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saburtalo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Saburtalo 50%, draw 26%, Samgurali 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Saburtalo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Saburtalo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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