V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 11 May 2025

V-Varen Nagasaki
1-1 HT 0-1
Montedio Yamagata
📅11/05/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2025

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Montedio Yamagata Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.21
Over 2.5
50%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.81
6+ Goals
11%
7.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.5pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

V-Varen Nagasaki v Montedio Yamagata — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -14%
2.01/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.48
+33% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
408 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
22.0 Crosses 15.1
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Montedio Yamagata Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
394 Passes 274
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
17.08.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 4-2 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
03.04.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
22.07.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 5-1 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
25.03.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 3-2 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
06.07.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 1-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
01.05.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Montedio Yamagata — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-1
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
530 Passes 293
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki and Montedio Yamagata shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was V-Varen Nagasaki at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 62% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 38%, shots finished 22-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 2.33 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Montedio Yamagata?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 49%, draw 24%, Montedio Yamagata 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ BTTS Yes
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