Montedio Yamagata 4-2 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
38%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.12
6+ Goals
9%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.99 — our 26% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
38%
Away Win
40%
-1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 43%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.42/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.18
+19% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
2W-1D-3L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.04.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
22.07.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 5-1 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
25.03.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 3-2 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
06.07.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 HT 1-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
01.05.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
14.09.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 5-1 HT 3-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
4-2
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
40% Ball Possession 60%
15 Total Shots 22
10 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 3
274 Passes 394
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata got the better of V-Varen Nagasaki 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Montedio Yamagata made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 40% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 60%, shots finished 15-22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 2.00 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Montedio Yamagata 4-2 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J2 League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated an V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 34%, draw 28%, V-Varen Nagasaki 38%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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