Fakel 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.75
Over 2.5
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.06
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
4.0
6+ Goals
8%
17.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.94
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
14%
5.74
X/2
15%
5.66
X/X
11%
4.41
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
15%
3.86
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.2pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -4%
0.93/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.32
-33% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
221 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 73%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
23.6 Crosses 14.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
0.81 xG 1.59
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 7
215 Passes 319
65% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-1 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
18.05.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
30.07.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-4 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
20.05.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
11.09.2022 Fakel Fakel 2-0 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
0-1
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
0.62 xG 0.99
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
14 Corners 3
213 Passes 308
69% Pass Accuracy 79%
48 Box Touches 24
26 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow nicked a narrow win over Fakel 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Lokomotiv Moscow found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Fakel had 45% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 55%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.62 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Fakel and 1.80 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Fakel 0-1 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fakel 37%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Moscow 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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