Dinamo Moscow 2-0 Spartak Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
32%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.27
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
3.11
6+ Goals
10%
9.59
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.27 — our 28% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.82
1/2
6%
25.0
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
14%
6.11
X/2
14%
5.76
X/X
12%
5.35
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
12%
3.48
2/X
7%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+6.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
32%
Away Win
38%
-6.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 42%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -17%
1.43/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.29
-10% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -17%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
283 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
16.8 Crosses 19.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.42 xG 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
269 Passes 353
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.04.2025 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 2-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUSK
07.02.2025 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova HAZ
02.10.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 2-3 HT 2-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
22.09.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 2-2 HT 2-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
31.07.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-0 HT 1-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
12.07.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
2-0
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.90 xG 1.30
38% Ball Possession 62%
16 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
241 Passes 457
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
24 Box Touches 38
7 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow beat Spartak Moskova 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Dinamo Moscow as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 38% of the ball to Spartak Moskova's 62%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 1.90 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 2.00 for Spartak Moskova.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova?

Dinamo Moscow 2-0 Spartak Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 43%, draw 25%, Spartak Moskova 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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