Loudoun United 5-1 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
34%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.33
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 27% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-8.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.3pp
34%
Away Win
24%
+10.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.2pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 27%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.31/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.63
+37% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 76%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
18.3 Crosses 25.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Loudoun United
5-1
AWAY Lexington
2.47 xG 0.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
374 Passes 308
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Loudoun United vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Loudoun United cruised past Lexington 5-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Loudoun United as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Loudoun United had 55% of the ball to Lexington's 45%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 2.47 to 0.50.

What was the final score of Loudoun United vs Lexington?

Loudoun United 5-1 Lexington in the USL Championship on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Loudoun United vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Loudoun United win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Loudoun United 44%, draw 22%, Lexington 34%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Loudoun United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Loudoun United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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