New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Prediction — Model Probabilities
New Mexico United v Phoenix Rising — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising — Actual Match Statistics
Phoenix Rising found just enough to beat New Mexico United 2-1 on the road. Half-time: 0-1.
File this under upsets: a 56% lean on New Mexico United went begging. That's football — and exactly why we publish probabilities, not promises.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 51% and both teams to score at 52%. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-no price stood at 1.85, roughly 54%.
The match data tells the story: possession split 70% to 30% in New Mexico United's favour, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.93 to 1.47.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.33 a game for New Mexico United against 1.17 for Phoenix Rising.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Result & Final Score
New Mexico United 1 - 2 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 56%, draw 23%, Phoenix Rising 21%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New Mexico United) went the other way.