New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.11
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.48
6+ Goals
12%
13.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+5.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.3pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
1.45/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.52
+1% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
352 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
13.8 Crosses 16.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.91 xG 0.77
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
318 Passes 298
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
04.11.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-1 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
10.10.2024 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-2 HT 1-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
31.03.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-1 HT 0-1 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
08.10.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 1-2 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
22.06.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 1-3 HT 0-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
25.05.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 7-0 HT 4-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
1-2
AWAY Phoenix Rising
0.93 xG 1.47
70% Ball Possession 30%
14 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
552 Passes 220
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising edged past New Mexico United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was New Mexico United at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 70% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 30%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.93 to 1.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for New Mexico United and 1.17 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?

New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 49%, draw 23%, Phoenix Rising 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New Mexico United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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