New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New Mexico United v Phoenix Rising — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
1-3
HT 0-1
Phoenix Rising
USLP
7-0
HT 4-0
Phoenix Rising
USLP
New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising — Actual Match Statistics
Phoenix Rising edged past New Mexico United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was New Mexico United at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, New Mexico United had 70% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 30%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 0.93 to 1.47.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for New Mexico United and 1.17 for Phoenix Rising.
What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 49%, draw 23%, Phoenix Rising 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New Mexico United) went the other way.