FC Tulsa 1-1 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 11 May 2025

📅11/05/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.87
2-3 Goals
36%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.74
6+ Goals
9%
16.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 36% vs market 28.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.3pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.2pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 39%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.43/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.25
-14% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
18.7 Crosses 12.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
0W-3D-3L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.10 xG 2.19
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
312 Passes 382
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-1 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
01.04.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 2-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
05.05.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 3-1 HT 1-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
10.10.2021 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-2 HT 1-2 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
11.10.2020 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
05.09.2019 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-2 HT 0-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
1-1
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.47 xG 1.11
36% Ball Possession 64%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
169 Passes 396
67% Pass Accuracy 82%
30 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa and El Paso Locomotive shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 36% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 64%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.47 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Paso Locomotive led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Tulsa and 2.00 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive?

FC Tulsa 1-1 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 11/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 39%, draw 28%, El Paso Locomotive 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (FC Tulsa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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