Super Nova 1-1 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 11 May 2026

📅11/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
1.97
Over 2.5
61%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.63
No
40%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.7pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.8pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
47%
-7.7pp
61%
Over 2.5
53%
+7.8pp
60%
BTTS Yes
57%
+2.5pp
40%
BTTS No
43%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Super Nova EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 43%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.14/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/1.20
+5% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
21.5 Crosses 21.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Super Nova
2W-2D-2L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.21 xG 1.24
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
213 Passes 322
66% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.03.2026 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-2 HT 0-2 Super Nova Super Nova LET
28.09.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-1 HT 0-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
06.07.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 1-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
16.05.2025 Super Nova Super Nova 1-1 HT 0-1 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
31.03.2025 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-2 HT 2-1 Super Nova Super Nova LET
17.09.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 1-0 HT 0-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Super Nova
1-1
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
0.70 xG 1.53
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
245 Passes 364
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 32
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Super Nova vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Super Nova and FK Tukums 2000 couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 22% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Super Nova had 41% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 59%, shots finished 6-19, expected goals 0.70 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Super Nova and 1.17 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of Super Nova vs FK Tukums 2000?

Super Nova 1-1 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Super Nova vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a Super Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Super Nova 39%, draw 22%, FK Tukums 2000 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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