Dinamo Moscow 2-1 Krasnodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 11 May 2026

📅11/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
44%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.5
No
41%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.47
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
25%
2.76
6+ Goals
11%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.8
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
21.4
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
11%
7.33
X/2
18%
5.04
X/X
15%
5.56
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
19%
2.69
2/X
8%
12.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.4 — our 7% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
44%
Away Win
46%
-2.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
62%
-3.3pp
41%
BTTS No
38%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 50%
+3% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.43/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.33
+14% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
285 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
15.1 Crosses 13.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Krasnodar
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.11 xG 1.64
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
212 Passes 292
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
07.05.2026 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
08.04.2026 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
30.09.2025 Krasnodar Krasnodar 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
13.08.2025 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-4 HT 0-3 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUK
02.08.2025 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
24.05.2025 Krasnodar Krasnodar 3-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
2-1
AWAY Krasnodar
1.07 xG 2.25
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
211 Passes 308
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Krasnodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow squeezed past Krasnodar 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Krasnodar at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 43% of the ball to Krasnodar's 57%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.07 to 2.25 — the balance of chances actually favoured Krasnodar.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.33 for Krasnodar.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Krasnodar?

Dinamo Moscow 2-1 Krasnodar in the Russia - Premier League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Krasnodar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 28%, draw 28%, Krasnodar 44%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Krasnodar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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