Spartak Moskova 2-1 Rubin Kazan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 11 May 2026

📅11/05/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
17%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.82
Over 2.5
44%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.01
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.61
6+ Goals
8%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 31% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.92
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
16.35
X/1
23%
3.84
X/2
5%
11.4
X/X
13%
5.29
2/1
7%
23.95
2/2
6%
9.92
2/X
6%
18.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
61%
-1.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+0.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
51%
+4.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
49%
-4.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.1pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Rubin Kazan EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
1.75/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.50
-6% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
389 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.5 Crosses 13.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Moskova
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Rubin Kazan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.51 xG 0.85
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
451 Passes 188
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
26 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2025 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 0-2 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
09.03.2025 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 2-1 HT 2-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
31.08.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-0 HT 0-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
19.05.2024 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-1 HT 2-0 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
05.08.2023 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan 1-4 HT 1-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
16.04.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-1 HT 0-1 Rubin Kazan Rubin Kazan RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Moskova
2-1
AWAY Rubin Kazan
3.16 xG 0.56
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
538 Passes 240
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
38 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Spartak Moskova vs Rubin Kazan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova squeezed past Rubin Kazan 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Spartak Moskova as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spartak Moskova had 66% of the ball to Rubin Kazan's 34%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 3.16 to 0.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Spartak Moskova's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Spartak Moskova and 0.83 for Rubin Kazan.

What was the final score of Spartak Moskova vs Rubin Kazan?

Spartak Moskova 2-1 Rubin Kazan in the Russia - Premier League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Moskova vs Rubin Kazan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Spartak Moskova 60%, draw 23%, Rubin Kazan 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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