Nacional de Football 4-0 Cerro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 11 May 2026

📅11/05/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.42
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
12%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
32%
X/2
4%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
66%
+1.8pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.6pp
12%
Away Win
13%
-1.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
2.04/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.95
+22% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 180 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Cerro
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
68% Ball Possession 32%
16 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2025 Cerro Cerro 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
03.05.2025 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 4-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
03.11.2024 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Cerro URU
10.06.2024 Cerro Cerro 3-0 HT 1-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
29.04.2024 Cerro Cerro 1-2 HT 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
16.10.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 2-1 HT 1-1 Cerro Cerro URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
4-0
AWAY Cerro
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 5
9 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Cerro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football swept aside Cerro 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 53% of the ball to Cerro's 47%, shots finished 17-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nacional de Football and 0.83 for Cerro.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Cerro?

Nacional de Football 4-0 Cerro in the Uruguay - Premier League on 11/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Cerro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 68%, draw 20%, Cerro 12%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
11 May 2026
23:00 Deportivo Maldonado vs Boston River Analysis →