Güney Afrika 3-1 Zimbabve — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 11 Jun 2024

📅11/06/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.47
Draw
31%
3.94
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.68
Over 2.5
36%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.25
6+ Goals
7%
21.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 38% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
64%
-18.0pp
31%
Draw
22%
+9.0pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+8.9pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+8.6pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-8.6pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-0.6pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Güney Afrika EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Zimbabve EU Bookmakers 17%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.38/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
-18% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% /
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
430 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 72%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.6 Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Güney Afrika
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Zimbabve
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.75 xG 0.28
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 4
369 Passes 288
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2021 Güney Afrika Güney Afrika 1-0 HT 1-0 Zimbabve Zimbabve DKE
03.09.2021 Zimbabve Zimbabve 0-0 HT 0-0 Güney Afrika Güney Afrika DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Güney Afrika
3-1
AWAY Zimbabve
3.43 xG 0.53
68% Ball Possession 32%
26 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 2
575 Passes 241
92% Pass Accuracy 79%
38 Box Touches 8
29 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Güney Afrika vs Zimbabve
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Güney Afrika got the better of Zimbabve 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Güney Afrika as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Güney Afrika had 68% of the ball to Zimbabve's 32%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 3.43 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Güney Afrika had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Güney Afrika and 0.00 for Zimbabve.

What was the final score of Güney Afrika vs Zimbabve?

Güney Afrika 3-1 Zimbabve in the World Cup Qualifiers on 11/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Güney Afrika vs Zimbabve?

Before kick-off our model rated a Güney Afrika win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Güney Afrika 46%, draw 31%, Zimbabve 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Güney Afrika) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Güney Afrika) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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