VPS 1-2 Zalgiris Vilnius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 11 Jul 2024

📅11/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
32%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
34%
+10.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
32%
Away Win
39%
-7.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.7pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
1-2
AWAY Zalgiris Vilnius
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH VPS vs Zalgiris Vilnius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zalgiris Vilnius edged past VPS 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was VPS at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, VPS had 41% of the ball to Zalgiris Vilnius's 59%, shots finished 9-21.

What was the final score of VPS vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

VPS 1-2 Zalgiris Vilnius in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 11/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs Zalgiris Vilnius?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split VPS 44%, draw 24%, Zalgiris Vilnius 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (VPS) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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