Gnistan 4-2 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 11 Jul 2026

📅11/07/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.33
Draw
20%
4.81
Away
15%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.38
Over 2.5
48%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
4.69
2-3 Goals
45%
1.9
4-5 Goals
21%
2.69
6+ Goals
12%
7.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.69 — our 22% vs market 15.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.56
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
7%
18.7
X/1
21%
3.86
X/2
6%
16.05
X/X
9%
7.53
2/1
9%
20.4
2/2
4%
13.1
2/X
5%
21.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
71%
-5.3pp
20%
Draw
18%
+2.9pp
14%
Away Win
12%
+2.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 15%
-24% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
2.02/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.98
-34% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
428 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 79%
41.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
29.8 Crosses 12.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
5W-1D-0L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.12 xG 1.07
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
289 Passes 326
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 31
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.06.2026 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-3 HT 0-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
30.01.2026 Gnistan Gnistan 2-2 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
09.08.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-5 HT 0-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
03.05.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 2-0 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
08.02.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 4-0 HT 3-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
15.09.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
4-2
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
4.32 xG 1.01
23 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
322 Passes 210
45 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
FAQ Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Gnistan beat IFK Mariehamn 4-2 in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 11 Jul 2026. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, shots finished 23-4, expected goals 4.32 to 1.01.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gnistan have the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Gnistan and 0.83 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn?

Gnistan 4-2 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 11/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 65%, draw 20%, IFK Mariehamn 14%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gnistan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gnistan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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