Genk 3-2 Club Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
40%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.24
2-3 Goals
43%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
3.01
6+ Goals
12%
9.26
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.24 — our 25% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.27
1/2
10%
21.85
1/X
10%
13.8
X/1
14%
7.67
X/2
17%
4.52
X/X
9%
5.45
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
13%
2.53
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
27%
+8.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
40%
Away Win
49%
-9.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.3pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Club Brugge EU Bookmakers 53%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -14%
1.18/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.06
-27% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +15%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
262 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 79%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.4
15.5 Crosses 22.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Club Brugge
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.53 xG 1.79
47% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
318 Passes 395
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.04.2024 Genk Genk 0-3 HT 0-1 Club Brugge Club Brugge BEL
24.04.2024 Club Brugge Club Brugge 4-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
03.03.2024 Genk Genk 0-3 HT 0-1 Club Brugge Club Brugge BEL
28.09.2023 Club Brugge Club Brugge 1-1 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
28.05.2023 Club Brugge Club Brugge 1-3 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
30.04.2023 Genk Genk 3-1 HT 1-1 Club Brugge Club Brugge BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
3-2
AWAY Club Brugge
2.39 xG 1.91
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
454 Passes 385
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 33
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genk vs Club Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk squeezed past Club Brugge 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Genk found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Genk had 54% of the ball to Club Brugge's 46%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 2.39 to 1.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club Brugge led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Genk and 2.17 for Club Brugge.

What was the final score of Genk vs Club Brugge?

Genk 3-2 Club Brugge in the Belgium - Pro League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Club Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated an Club Brugge win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Genk 35%, draw 25%, Club Brugge 40%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Club Brugge) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Club Brugge) ✓ Over 2.5
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