Ekvator Ginesi 1-0 Liberya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.51
Over 2.5
34%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.51
No
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.22
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
16%
5.56
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
28%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
60%
-5.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
18%
Away Win
15%
+3.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.3pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+1.7pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ekvator Ginesi EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Liberya EU Bookmakers 18%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.31/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.37/1.95
+36% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
9.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
10.0 Crosses 8.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ekvator Ginesi
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Liberya
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
20.11.2023 Liberya Liberya 3-0 Ekvator Ginesi Ekvator Ginesi DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ekvator Ginesi
1-0
AWAY Liberya
1.14 xG 1.12
65% Ball Possession 35%
6 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 1
252 Passes 143
78% Pass Accuracy 62%
8 Box Touches 13
5 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ekvator Ginesi vs Liberya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ekvator Ginesi edged past Liberya 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ekvator Ginesi as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Ekvator Ginesi had 65% of the ball to Liberya's 35%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 1.14 to 1.12.

What was the final score of Ekvator Ginesi vs Liberya?

Ekvator Ginesi 1-0 Liberya in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ekvator Ginesi vs Liberya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ekvator Ginesi win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ekvator Ginesi 54%, draw 27%, Liberya 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ekvator Ginesi), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ekvator Ginesi) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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