Nijerya 1-0 Libya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.27
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.51
No
61%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.5
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 29% vs market 23.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
74%
-13.5pp
23%
Draw
17%
+6.1pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
36%
+3.7pp
61%
BTTS No
64%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nijerya EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Libya EU Bookmakers 11%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
2.00/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.42/3.52
+24% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -79% / -34%
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
398 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 73%
31.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.5
22.1 Crosses 7.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nijerya
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Libya
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 5
16.10.2018 Libya Libya 2-3 HT 1-2 Nijerya Nijerya AFUK
13.10.2018 Nijerya Nijerya 4-0 HT 1-0 Libya Libya AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nijerya
1-0
AWAY Libya
1.37 xG 0.03
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 0
406 Passes 208
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
42 Box Touches 2
32 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nijerya vs Libya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nijerya edged past Libya 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nijerya as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Nijerya had 63% of the ball to Libya's 37%, shots finished 15-2, expected goals 1.37 to 0.03 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Nijerya's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Nijerya had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Nijerya and 1.00 for Libya.

What was the final score of Nijerya vs Libya?

Nijerya 1-0 Libya in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nijerya vs Libya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nijerya win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Nijerya 61%, draw 23%, Libya 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nijerya), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nijerya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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