Madagaskar 1-1 Gambiya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.8
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.34
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.19
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+3.9pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.7pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-1.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.4pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Madagaskar EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Gambiya EU Bookmakers 40%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.06/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.42/0.97
-15% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +45%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
275 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
10.7 Crosses 10.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Madagaskar
1-1
AWAY Gambiya
0.33 xG 1.85
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 5
199 Passes 363
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
7 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Madagaskar vs Gambiya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Madagaskar and Gambiya shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Madagaskar had 38% of the ball to Gambiya's 62%, shots finished 7-22, expected goals 0.33 to 1.85.

What was the final score of Madagaskar vs Gambiya?

Madagaskar 1-1 Gambiya in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Madagaskar vs Gambiya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Madagaskar win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Madagaskar 36%, draw 28%, Gambiya 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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