Mısır 2-0 Moritanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.28
Draw
23%
4.95
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.97
Over 2.5
44%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.44
No
64%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.58
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 30% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
25%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
74%
-13.3pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.3pp
16%
Away Win
9%
+7.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.8pp
36%
BTTS Yes
37%
-0.9pp
64%
BTTS No
63%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mısır EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Moritanya EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.53/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.52
+10% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -93% / -8%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 73%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
17.4 Crosses 17.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mısır
2-0
AWAY Moritanya
1.18 xG 0.60
71% Ball Possession 29%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 8
524 Passes 169
89% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mısır vs Moritanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mısır beat Moritanya 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Mısır as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mısır had 71% of the ball to Moritanya's 29%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.18 to 0.60.

What was the final score of Mısır vs Moritanya?

Mısır 2-0 Moritanya in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mısır vs Moritanya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mısır win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Mısır 61%, draw 24%, Moritanya 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mısır), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mısır) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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