Fildişi Sahili 4-1 Sierra Leone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.18
Draw
23%
6.26
Away
20%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.51
Over 2.5
48%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.4
No
60%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.32
2-3 Goals
40%
1.98
4-5 Goals
22%
2.69
6+ Goals
11%
6.71
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.32 — our 27% vs market 14.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
81%
-23.9pp
23%
Draw
13%
+10.2pp
20%
Away Win
6%
+13.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
36%
+15.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
64%
-15.5pp
40%
BTTS Yes
38%
+3.0pp
60%
BTTS No
62%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fildişi Sahili EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Sierra Leone EU Bookmakers 8%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.64/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.57/1.56
+4% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -19%
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
411 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 185 · 70%
34.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
22.4 Crosses 11.2
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fildişi Sahili
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Sierra Leone
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.28 xG 1.24
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
411 Passes 210
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
47 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
16.01.2022 Fildişi Sahili Fildişi Sahili 2-2 HT 1-0 Sierra Leone Sierra Leone AFUK
06.09.2015 Sierra Leone Sierra Leone 0-0 HT 0-0 Fildişi Sahili Fildişi Sahili AFR
14.11.2014 Sierra Leone Sierra Leone 1-5 HT 1-1 Fildişi Sahili Fildişi Sahili AFUK
06.09.2014 Fildişi Sahili Fildişi Sahili 2-1 HT 0-1 Sierra Leone Sierra Leone AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fildişi Sahili
4-1
AWAY Sierra Leone
4.37 xG 0.94
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
465 Passes 305
91% Pass Accuracy 88%
44 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fildişi Sahili vs Sierra Leone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fildişi Sahili ran out comfortable winners over Sierra Leone 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fildişi Sahili as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fildişi Sahili had 58% of the ball to Sierra Leone's 42%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 4.37 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fildişi Sahili had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Fildişi Sahili and 1.00 for Sierra Leone.

What was the final score of Fildişi Sahili vs Sierra Leone?

Fildişi Sahili 4-1 Sierra Leone in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fildişi Sahili vs Sierra Leone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fildişi Sahili win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Fildişi Sahili 57%, draw 23%, Sierra Leone 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fildişi Sahili) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fildişi Sahili) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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