Gabon 0-0 Lesotho — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.78
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
28%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 26% vs market 21.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
68%
-10.3pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.6pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+3.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gabon EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Lesotho EU Bookmakers 15%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -14%
2.16/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/1.98
-25% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -22%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 75%
30.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.5
19.1 Crosses 6.6
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gabon
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Lesotho
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
19.11.2014 Gabon Gabon 4-2 HT 1-0 Lesotho Lesotho AFUK
10.09.2014 Lesotho Lesotho 1-1 HT 0-0 Gabon Gabon AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gabon
0-0
AWAY Lesotho
1.03 xG 0.69
72% Ball Possession 28%
20 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 4
478 Passes 149
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
41 Box Touches 6
29 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Gabon vs Lesotho
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gabon and Lesotho played out a goalless draw. Neither side could find a way through.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Gabon at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Gabon had 72% of the ball to Lesotho's 28%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 1.03 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Gabon had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Gabon and 1.50 for Lesotho.

What was the final score of Gabon vs Lesotho?

Gabon 0-0 Lesotho in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gabon vs Lesotho?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gabon win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Gabon 58%, draw 26%, Lesotho 16%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Gabon), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gabon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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