11/10/2024
·
22:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
Senegal vs Lesotho Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.71
— our 31% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 68% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
Under 2.5
BTTS No
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
79%
22%
Draw
15%
13%
Away Win
5%
56%
Under 2.5
46%
44%
Over 2.5
54%
32%
BTTS Yes
32%
68%
BTTS No
68%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Senegal v Lesotho — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Senegal
EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY
Lesotho
EU Bookmakers 8%
+1% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-9% /
-11%
2.07/0.69
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.41/1.98
+16%
/
-7%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-37%
/
-16%
60%
Ball Possession
40%
16
Total Shots
7
6
Shots on Target
2
6
Corners
3
435 · 85%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
239 · 75%
29.1
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
7.5
13.2
Crosses
6.6
1.4
Yellow Cards
1.5
Senegal vs Lesotho Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Senegal
0W-1D-0L
AWAY
Lesotho
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
0.83
xG
0.30
78%
Ball Possession
22%
10
Total Shots
10
3
Shots on Target
0
5
Corners
4
393
Passes
59
83%
Pass Accuracy
46%
22
Box Touches
12
27
Crosses
10
2
Yellow Cards
2
The Meetings
18.01.2022
Lesotho
0-0
HT 0-0
Senegal
Afrika Uluslar Kupası
0-0
HT 0-0
Senegal
Afrika Uluslar Kupası
Senegal 4-0 Lesotho — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Senegal
4-0
AWAY
Lesotho
2.75
xG
0.03
73%
Ball Possession
27%
22
Total Shots
2
7
Shots on Target
0
11
Corners
0
561
Passes
165
87%
Pass Accuracy
67%
48
Box Touches
0
30
Crosses
0
0
Yellow Cards
2
POST-MATCH
Senegal vs Lesotho
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Senegal cruised past Lesotho 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Senegal as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (68%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.
On the day, Senegal had 73% of the ball to Lesotho's 27%, shots finished 22-2, expected goals 2.75 to 0.03.
What was the final score of Senegal vs Lesotho?
Senegal 4-0 Lesotho in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Senegal vs Lesotho?
Before kick-off our model rated a Senegal win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Senegal 66%, draw 22%, Lesotho 13%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Senegal), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Senegal)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced?
Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself?
Open Match Studio →
AFUK
More Afrika Uluslar Cup
11 Oct 2024