Tunus 0-1 Komorlar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.67
Over
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.95
No
63%
1.35
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2.64
2-3
35%
1.77
4-5
18%
4.44
6+
9%
23.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.64 — our 38% vs market 31.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
29%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
72%
-12.5pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.5pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+8.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+6.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-6.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
30%
+7.3pp
63%
BTTS No
70%
-7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tunus EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Komorlar EU Bookmakers 11%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.02/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.47
+15% / +109% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +72% / -19%
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
398 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 71%
39.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
19.0 Crosses 7.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tunus
0-1
AWAY Komorlar
0.64 xG 0.36
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
15 Corners 3
511 Passes 210
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 7
37 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tunus vs Komorlar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Komorlar edged past Tunus 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Tunus at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Tunus had 68% of the ball to Komorlar's 32%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 0.64 to 0.36.

What was the final score of Tunus vs Komorlar?

Tunus 0-1 Komorlar in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tunus vs Komorlar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tunus win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Tunus 60%, draw 24%, Komorlar 16%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Tunus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tunus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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