Uganda 1-0 Güney Sudan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Afrika Uluslar Cup, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.43
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under
59%
1.59
Over
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.67
No Pick
62%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2.43
2-3
38%
1.78
4-5
17%
4.92
6+
7%
28.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.43 — our 38% vs market 34.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-9.1pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.7pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
33%
+4.3pp
62%
BTTS No
67%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uganda EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Güney Sudan EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.20/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.51/1.27
-5% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +4%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 74%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
30.0 Crosses 13.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uganda
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Güney Sudan
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
16.11.2020 Güney Sudan Güney Sudan 1-0 HT 1-0 Uganda Uganda AFUK
12.11.2020 Uganda Uganda 1-0 HT 0-0 Güney Sudan Güney Sudan AFUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uganda
1-0
AWAY Güney Sudan
0.77 xG 0.29
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
403 Passes 148
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
15 Box Touches 7
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Uganda vs Güney Sudan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uganda nicked a narrow win over Güney Sudan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Uganda as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Uganda had 66% of the ball to Güney Sudan's 34%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 0.77 to 0.29.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Uganda and 0.50 for Güney Sudan.

What was the final score of Uganda vs Güney Sudan?

Uganda 1-0 Güney Sudan in the Afrika Uluslar Cup on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uganda vs Güney Sudan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uganda win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Uganda 57%, draw 25%, Güney Sudan 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uganda), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Uganda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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