Bosna-Hersek 1-2 Almanya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
7.78
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
54%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.43
Over Pick
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.95
No
47%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
22%
5.25
2-3
43%
1.98
4-5
26%
2.7
6+
9%
6.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
16.3
1/2
7%
22.3
1/X
4%
23.6
X/1
7%
21.45
X/2
20%
3.46
X/X
7%
8.5
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
1.45
2/X
7%
24.0
Value flag · 1/1 at 16.3 — our 14% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
10%
+17.0pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.2pp
54%
Away Win
74%
-19.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.4pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bosna-Hersek EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Almanya EU Bookmakers 78%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.48/2.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/1.41
-100% / +85% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / -63%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
264 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 504 · 85%
9.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
9.0 Crosses 17.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bosna-Hersek
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Almanya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
03.06.2010 Almanya Almanya 3-1 HT 0-1 Bosna-Hersek Bosna-Hersek HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bosna-Hersek
1-2
AWAY Almanya
0.45 xG 1.80
27% Ball Possession 73%
8 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
162 Passes 627
64% Pass Accuracy 89%
7 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bosna-Hersek vs Almanya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almanya edged past Bosna-Hersek 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Almanya as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Bosna-Hersek had 27% of the ball to Almanya's 73%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.45 to 1.80 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Almanya's control.

What was the final score of Bosna-Hersek vs Almanya?

Bosna-Hersek 1-2 Almanya in the UEFA Uluslar League on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bosna-Hersek vs Almanya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almanya win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Bosna-Hersek 27%, draw 19%, Almanya 54%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Almanya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Almanya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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