Türkiye vs Karadağ Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Türkiye v Karadağ — Team-Based Signals
Türkiye vs Karadağ Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
1-2
HT 1-1
Türkiye
DKE
2-2
HT 2-1
Karadağ
DKE
2-2
HT 1-2
Türkiye
HAZ
1-0
HT 0-0
Karadağ
HAZ
Türkiye 1-0 Karadağ — Actual Match Statistics
Türkiye squeezed past Karadağ 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Türkiye as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Türkiye had 64% of the ball to Karadağ's 36%, shots finished 29-10, expected goals 3.01 to 0.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Türkiye's control.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Türkiye had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Türkiye and 1.25 for Karadağ.
What was the final score of Türkiye vs Karadağ?
Türkiye 1-0 Karadağ in the UEFA Uluslar League on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Türkiye vs Karadağ?
Before kick-off our model rated a Türkiye win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Türkiye 57%, draw 24%, Karadağ 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Türkiye), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.