Estonya vs Azerbaycan Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estonya v Azerbaycan — Team-Based Signals
Estonya vs Azerbaycan Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-2
Azerbaycan
AVŞE
1-1
HT 0-1
Estonya
AVŞE
2-1
HT 0-1
Azerbaycan
HAZ
Estonya 3-1 Azerbaycan — Actual Match Statistics
Estonya beat Azerbaycan 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.
Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Estonya found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Estonya had 33% of the ball to Azerbaycan's 67%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.63 to 1.74.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Estonya and 1.33 for Azerbaycan.
What was the final score of Estonya vs Azerbaycan?
Estonya 3-1 Azerbaycan in the UEFA Uluslar League on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estonya vs Azerbaycan?
Before kick-off our model rated an Azerbaycan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estonya 34%, draw 27%, Azerbaycan 39%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.