Ukrayna 1-0 Gürcistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Uluslar League, 11 Oct 2024

📅11/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
39%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.75
Over
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
33%
3.02
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
19%
3.87
6+
9%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.02 — our 33% vs market 27.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.2
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
13%
4.87
X/2
17%
6.32
X/X
16%
4.31
2/1
5%
28.0
2/2
15%
4.61
2/X
5%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
42%
-8.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
39%
Away Win
30%
+8.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.5pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ukrayna EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Gürcistan EU Bookmakers 34%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
1.66/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.72
-51% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +87% / +110%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 82%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
13.4 Crosses 12.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ukrayna
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Gürcistan
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
09.06.2015 Gürcistan Gürcistan 1-2 HT 0-0 Ukrayna Ukrayna HAZ
08.09.2007 Gürcistan Gürcistan 1-1 HT 0-1 Ukrayna Ukrayna AVR
06.09.2006 Ukrayna Ukrayna 3-2 HT 1-1 Gürcistan Gürcistan AVR
03.09.2005 Gürcistan Gürcistan 1-1 HT 0-1 Ukrayna Ukrayna DKE
13.10.2004 Ukrayna Ukrayna 2-0 HT 1-0 Gürcistan Gürcistan DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ukrayna
1-0
AWAY Gürcistan
0.57 xG 0.68
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
273 Passes 437
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ukrayna vs Gürcistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ukrayna edged past Gürcistan 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Ukrayna made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Ukrayna had 41% of the ball to Gürcistan's 59%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.57 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ukrayna had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Ukrayna and 1.00 for Gürcistan.

What was the final score of Ukrayna vs Gürcistan?

Ukrayna 1-0 Gürcistan in the UEFA Uluslar League on 11/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ukrayna vs Gürcistan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gürcistan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Ukrayna 33%, draw 28%, Gürcistan 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gürcistan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gürcistan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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