Venados 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 11 Oct 2025

📅11/10/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.49
No
47%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-4.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.7pp
47%
BTTS No
37%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Venados EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 34%
+7% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +13%
1.73/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.34
+14% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Venados
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
11.01.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-2 HT 0-0 Venados Venados MEK2
27.07.2024 Venados Venados 1-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
19.01.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 0-5 HT 0-2 Venados Venados MEK2
28.09.2023 Venados Venados 5-1 HT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
05.01.2023 Venados Venados 1-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
20.10.2022 Venados Venados 4-2 HT 4-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Venados
1-0
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 28
4 Shots on Target 11
7 Corners 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Venados vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Venados edged past Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Venados made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Venados had 38% of the ball to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 62%, shots finished 8-28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Venados had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Venados and 1.00 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Venados vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Venados 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Venados vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Venados win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Venados 39%, draw 26%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Venados) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Venados) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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