Atletico Madrid 3-1 Slovan Bratislava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 11 Dec 2024

📅11/12/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.11
Draw
17%
8.78
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
30%
4.58
Over 2.5
70%
1.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.44
No
48%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
10.25
2-3 Goals
37%
2.55
4-5 Goals
28%
2.26
6+ Goals
19%
3.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.09
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
4%
34.5
X/1
13%
3.74
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
9%
21.7
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
28.5
2/2
3%
34.5
2/X
4%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 14% vs market 0.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
85%
-18.1pp
17%
Draw
8%
+9.0pp
16%
Away Win
6%
+9.1pp
30%
Under 2.5
18%
+11.4pp
70%
Over 2.5
82%
-11.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
37%
+15.4pp
48%
BTTS No
63%
-15.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 90%
Head to Head
AWAY Slovan Bratislava EU Bookmakers 9%
-19% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
2.45/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.44
-22% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +2%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
460 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 80%
37.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
26.1 Crosses 11.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
3-1
AWAY Slovan Bratislava
1.99 xG 1.02
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
621 Passes 410
91% Pass Accuracy 85%
37 Box Touches 17
29 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Slovan Bratislava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid saw off Slovan Bratislava 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (70%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 59% of the ball to Slovan Bratislava's 41%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 1.99 to 1.02.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Slovan Bratislava?

Atletico Madrid 3-1 Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League on 11/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Slovan Bratislava?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 67%, draw 17%, Slovan Bratislava 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ŞMP More Champions League
11 Dec 2024
20:45 Lille vs Sturm Graz Analysis →
23:00 Stuttgart vs Young Boys Analysis →
23:00 Feyenoord vs Sparta Prag Analysis →
23:00 Benfica vs Bologna Analysis →
23:00 Milan vs Kızılyıldız Analysis →
23:00 Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Analysis →