Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 11 Dec 2024

📅11/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.89
Over 2.5
57%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.38
No
41%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.65
2-3 Goals
39%
2.13
4-5 Goals
27%
2.41
6+ Goals
13%
4.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.58
1/2
6%
20.3
1/X
10%
12.6
X/1
11%
7.95
X/2
15%
5.22
X/X
8%
6.4
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
18%
2.57
2/X
8%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+5.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-6.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
31%
+11.6pp
57%
Over 2.5
69%
-11.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
68%
-9.7pp
41%
BTTS No
32%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 51%
+23% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -11%
1.55/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.77
-4% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -6%
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
336 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 513 · 86%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
14.8 Crosses 15.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Barcelona
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.52 xG 1.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
514 Passes 555
88% Pass Accuracy 88%
27 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2019 Barcelona Barcelona 3-1 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund ŞMP
17.09.2019 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-0 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
2-3
AWAY Barcelona
2.73 xG 2.04
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 3
355 Passes 450
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona squeezed past Borussia Dortmund 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Barcelona made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 45% of the ball to Barcelona's 55%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 2.73 to 2.04 — the balance of chances actually favoured Borussia Dortmund.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.50 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona?

Borussia Dortmund 2-3 Barcelona in the Champions League on 11/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 35%, draw 25%, Barcelona 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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