Feyenoord 4-2 Sparta Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 11 Dec 2024

📅11/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.49
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.43
Over 2.5
48%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.65
6+ Goals
9%
6.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.98 — our 24% vs market 14.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.66
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
18.95
X/1
25%
3.71
X/2
6%
15.55
X/X
9%
7.48
2/1
7%
20.8
2/2
6%
11.35
2/X
7%
19.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
68%
-9.7pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.3pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+5.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Feyenoord EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 17%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.12/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.71
-42% / -55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +76%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
421 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
19.6 Crosses 4.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Feyenoord
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
30.08.2012 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-0 HT 0-0 Feyenoord Feyenoord AVL
23.08.2012 Feyenoord Feyenoord 2-2 HT 0-2 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Feyenoord
4-2
AWAY Sparta Prag
0.95 xG 0.72
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
395 Passes 278
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Feyenoord vs Sparta Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Feyenoord saw off Sparta Prag 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Feyenoord as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Feyenoord had 57% of the ball to Sparta Prag's 43%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.95 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sparta Prag led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Feyenoord and 2.00 for Sparta Prag.

What was the final score of Feyenoord vs Sparta Prag?

Feyenoord 4-2 Sparta Prag in the Champions League on 11/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Feyenoord vs Sparta Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Feyenoord win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Feyenoord 58%, draw 23%, Sparta Prag 19%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Feyenoord) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Feyenoord) ✗ Under 2.5
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