Lille vs Sturm Graz Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lille v Sturm Graz — Team-Based Signals
Lille vs Sturm Graz Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Lille 3-2 Sturm Graz — Actual Match Statistics
Lille nicked a narrow win over Sturm Graz 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Lille had 67% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 33%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.01 to 1.29.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lille had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lille and 0.50 for Sturm Graz.
What was the final score of Lille vs Sturm Graz?
Lille 3-2 Sturm Graz in the Champions League on 11/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lille vs Sturm Graz?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lille 53%, draw 26%, Sturm Graz 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.