Gzira United 3-1 Naxxar Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Malta - Premier League, 11 Dec 2025

📅11/12/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
28%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
59%
-8.9pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.6pp
28%
Away Win
18%
+10.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gzira United EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.64/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.11
+14% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +27%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gzira United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Naxxar Lions
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2025 Gzira United Gzira United 2-1 HT 2-1 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
28.04.2025 Gzira United Gzira United 0-2 HT 0-1 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MALTP
25.01.2025 Gzira United Gzira United 1-0 HT 1-0 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MALTP
20.10.2024 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 1-1 HT 1-0 Gzira United Gzira United MLTP
10.02.2024 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 0-1 HT 0-0 Gzira United Gzira United MLTP
26.09.2023 Gzira United Gzira United 1-1 HT 0-0 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gzira United
3-1
AWAY Naxxar Lions
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Gzira United vs Naxxar Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gzira United beat Naxxar Lions 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gzira United as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gzira United had 36% of the ball to Naxxar Lions's 64%, shots finished 7-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gzira United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gzira United and 0.83 for Naxxar Lions.

What was the final score of Gzira United vs Naxxar Lions?

Gzira United 3-1 Naxxar Lions in the Malta - Premier League on 11/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gzira United vs Naxxar Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gzira United win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Gzira United 50%, draw 21%, Naxxar Lions 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gzira United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gzira United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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