Avranches 2-1 Cholet — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 12 Jan 2024

📅12/01/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
22%
3.18
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.81
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.02
6+ Goals
7%
18.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 33% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.14
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
17%
4.69
X/2
16%
6.3
X/X
9%
4.22
2/1
12%
28.0
2/2
8%
4.75
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+3.9pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.9pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.4pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avranches EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cholet EU Bookmakers 33%
+20% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
2.01/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.59
+43% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avranches
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cholet
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2023 Avranches Avranches 2-1 HT 0-1 Cholet Cholet FR3
12.08.2022 Cholet Cholet 3-0 HT 0-1 Avranches Avranches FR3
22.04.2022 Avranches Avranches 0-2 HT 0-2 Cholet Cholet FR3
04.12.2021 Cholet Cholet 1-1 HT 1-1 Avranches Avranches FR3
05.03.2021 Cholet Cholet 1-0 HT 1-0 Avranches Avranches FR3
02.10.2020 Avranches Avranches 3-1 HT 2-1 Cholet Cholet FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avranches
2-1
AWAY Cholet
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Avranches vs Cholet
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avranches squeezed past Cholet 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Avranches as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avranches had 64% of the ball to Cholet's 36%, shots finished 13-2.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cholet led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Avranches and 1.50 for Cholet.

What was the final score of Avranches vs Cholet?

Avranches 2-1 Cholet in the France - National League 1 on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avranches vs Cholet?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avranches win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Avranches 47%, draw 22%, Cholet 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avranches) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avranches) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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