UCAM Murcia 0-1 Xerez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.4
No
50%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+4.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
38%
+12.3pp
50%
BTTS No
62%
-12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UCAM Murcia EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Xerez EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.17/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/0.25
-17% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UCAM Murcia
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Xerez
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
7 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 5
01.09.2024 Xerez Xerez 2-1 HT 1-1 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UCAM Murcia
0-1
AWAY Xerez
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH UCAM Murcia vs Xerez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Xerez nicked a narrow win over UCAM Murcia 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was UCAM Murcia at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, UCAM Murcia had 51% of the ball to Xerez's 49%, shots finished 7-8.

What was the final score of UCAM Murcia vs Xerez?

UCAM Murcia 0-1 Xerez in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UCAM Murcia vs Xerez?

Before kick-off our model rated a UCAM Murcia win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split UCAM Murcia 49%, draw 27%, Xerez 23%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (UCAM Murcia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (UCAM Murcia) ✓ Under 2.5
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