AGF Aarhus 0-1 Midtjylland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - DBU Cup, 12 Feb 2026

📅12/02/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.97
Over
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.61
2-3
38%
1.81
4-5
27%
3.24
6+
10%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.5
1/2
11%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
14%
5.69
X/2
14%
6.25
X/X
12%
4.84
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
11%
4.06
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+2.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.5pp
43%
BTTS No
43%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
0.83/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.51
-67% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -2%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
273 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 77%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.4
17.7 Crosses 13.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Midtjylland
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 1.68
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
347 Passes 266
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 25
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2025 Midtjylland Midtjylland 1-1 HT 0-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
03.08.2025 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-0 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
04.05.2025 Midtjylland Midtjylland 3-1 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
13.04.2025 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 0-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
27.10.2024 Midtjylland Midtjylland 2-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
19.07.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-1 HT 1-0 Midtjylland Midtjylland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
0-1
AWAY Midtjylland
0.39 xG 0.51
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 1
0 Corners 4
251 Passes 225
74% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 13
14 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland edged past AGF Aarhus 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Midtjylland made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 51% of the ball to Midtjylland's 49%, shots finished 6-3, expected goals 0.39 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Midtjylland led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.33 for Midtjylland.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

AGF Aarhus 0-1 Midtjylland in the Denmark - DBU Cup on 12/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Midtjylland?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 37%, draw 27%, Midtjylland 36%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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