Columbus Crew 2-1 Los Angeles FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 12 Mar 2025

📅12/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.71
2-3 Goals
45%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.67
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 25% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.4pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Los Angeles FC EU Bookmakers 29%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
0.99/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/2.09
-40% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -22%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
13.0 Crosses 11.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Columbus Crew
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Los Angeles FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.25 xG 1.43
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
454 Passes 269
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
05.03.2025 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 3-0 HT 1-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew CON
26.08.2024 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 3-1 HT 1-0 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC CONLK
14.07.2024 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 1-5 HT 0-1 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
10.12.2023 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-1 HT 2-0 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
22.05.2022 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 0-2 HT 0-0 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
12.05.2019 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 0-3 HT 0-1 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Columbus Crew
2-1
AWAY Los Angeles FC
2.68 xG 0.94
69% Ball Possession 31%
22 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
569 Passes 226
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
36 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 3
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Columbus Crew vs Los Angeles FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Columbus Crew nicked a narrow win over Los Angeles FC 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Columbus Crew as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Columbus Crew had 69% of the ball to Los Angeles FC's 31%, shots finished 22-9, expected goals 2.68 to 0.94 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Columbus Crew's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.83 for Los Angeles FC.

What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs Los Angeles FC?

Columbus Crew 2-1 Los Angeles FC in the CONCACAF Champions League on 12/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Columbus Crew vs Los Angeles FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Columbus Crew win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Columbus Crew 46%, draw 24%, Los Angeles FC 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Columbus Crew) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Columbus Crew) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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