Bellinzona 3-1 Vaduz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.46
6+ Goals
9%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 30% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.0pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vaduz EU Bookmakers 31%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.34/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.31
-30% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
18.3 Crosses 14.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Vaduz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.26 xG 1.64
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 Passes 281
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2025 Vaduz Vaduz 3-1 HT 2-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
08.12.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-2 HT 1-1 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
29.09.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 2-1 HT 2-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
20.05.2024 Vaduz Vaduz 2-2 HT 0-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
28.02.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-1 HT 0-0 Vaduz Vaduz İSV2
17.12.2023 Vaduz Vaduz 1-2 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
3-1
AWAY Vaduz
0.76 xG 1.20
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
223 Passes 383
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Vaduz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bellinzona saw off Vaduz 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bellinzona as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bellinzona had 40% of the ball to Vaduz's 60%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.76 to 1.20 — on chances, Vaduz could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vaduz led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bellinzona and 1.83 for Vaduz.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Vaduz?

Bellinzona 3-1 Vaduz in the Switzerland Challenge League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Vaduz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bellinzona win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 41%, draw 26%, Vaduz 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bellinzona) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bellinzona) ✗ Under 2.5
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