Modena 1-3 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
44%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.74
Over
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.89
2-3
42%
1.77
4-5
18%
3.89
6+
9%
17.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.89 — our 31% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.02
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
9%
13.25
X/1
10%
6.84
X/2
12%
5.14
X/X
13%
4.22
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
24%
3.21
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-2.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.3pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+2.6pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+5.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-5.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Modena EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 45%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +1%
1.05/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.14
+9% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -32%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 78%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
18.7 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Modena
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sassuolo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.51 xG 1.63
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
294 Passes 433
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 38
18 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
26.10.2024 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-0 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTB
08.08.2022 Modena Modena 3-2 HT 2-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTK
15.08.2015 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTK
26.04.2013 Modena Modena 2-1 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTB
07.12.2012 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-0 HT 1-0 Modena Modena İTB
06.04.2012 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Modena
1-3
AWAY Sassuolo
0.79 xG 0.95
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 1
464 Passes 390
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Modena vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo saw off Modena 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sassuolo as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Modena had 54% of the ball to Sassuolo's 46%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.79 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Modena and 1.50 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Modena vs Sassuolo?

Modena 1-3 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie B on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Modena vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Modena 28%, draw 29%, Sassuolo 44%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sassuolo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTB More Italy - Serie B
12 Apr 2025
16:00 Cosenza Calcio vs Brescia Analysis →
16:00 Salernitana vs Südtirol Analysis →
16:00 Reggiana vs Pisa Analysis →
16:00 Carrarese vs Catanzaro Analysis →
18:15 Sampdoria vs Cittadella Analysis →