Salernitana 2-1 Südtirol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.67
Over
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.67
2-3
43%
1.76
4-5
19%
4.22
6+
9%
20.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.82
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
12%
13.4
X/1
11%
4.66
X/2
7%
7.67
X/X
14%
4.13
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
16%
6.15
2/X
5%
14.45
Value flag · 1/X at 13.4 — our 12% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.6pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.1pp
30%
Away Win
25%
+4.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Südtirol EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +18%
1.41/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.00
+2% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +66%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
22.0 Crosses 18.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Südtirol
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.35 xG 2.99
60% Ball Possession 40%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
497 Passes 307
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.08.2024 Südtirol Südtirol 3-2 HT 2-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
30.09.2020 Salernitana Salernitana 3-0 HT 0-0 Südtirol Südtirol İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
2-1
AWAY Südtirol
1.80 xG 1.47
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
241 Passes 193
77% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Südtirol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salernitana squeezed past Südtirol 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 31% / 30%) promised a tight game; Salernitana found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Salernitana had 51% of the ball to Südtirol's 49%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.80 to 1.47.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Salernitana and 1.50 for Südtirol.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Südtirol?

Salernitana 2-1 Südtirol in the Italy - Serie B on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Südtirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salernitana win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 39%, draw 31%, Südtirol 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salernitana) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Salernitana) ✗ Under 2.5
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