Sampdoria 1-0 Cittadella — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
62%
1.71
Over
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.96
No
62%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.76
2-3
38%
1.76
4-5
17%
4.07
6+
9%
19.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.76 — our 36% vs market 29.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.29
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.65
X/1
19%
4.18
X/2
10%
9.68
X/X
13%
4.51
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
9%
8.28
2/X
7%
16.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-8.7pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sampdoria EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Cittadella EU Bookmakers 23%
-19% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +11%
1.35/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.26
-42% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
359 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
21.7 Crosses 22.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sampdoria
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cittadella
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.78 xG 1.04
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
369 Passes 280
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
30.10.2024 Cittadella Cittadella 0-0 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
28.01.2024 Cittadella Cittadella 1-2 HT 0-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
18.09.2023 Sampdoria Sampdoria 1-2 HT 1-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
24.03.2012 Cittadella Cittadella 1-2 HT 1-2 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
22.10.2011 Sampdoria Sampdoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
14.04.2002 Cittadella Cittadella 1-1 HT 1-0 Sampdoria Sampdoria İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sampdoria
1-0
AWAY Cittadella
0.67 xG 0.29
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 1
302 Passes 205
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 8
17 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sampdoria vs Cittadella
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sampdoria nicked a narrow win over Cittadella 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sampdoria as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Sampdoria had 57% of the ball to Cittadella's 43%, shots finished 10-5, expected goals 0.67 to 0.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sampdoria had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sampdoria and 0.83 for Cittadella.

What was the final score of Sampdoria vs Cittadella?

Sampdoria 1-0 Cittadella in the Italy - Serie B on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sampdoria vs Cittadella?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sampdoria win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sampdoria 49%, draw 26%, Cittadella 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sampdoria), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sampdoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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