Picerno 1-2 US Latina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.63
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.09
6+ Goals
9%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 32% vs market 30.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.1pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.6pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.5pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Picerno EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY US Latina EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.71/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.50
+8% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 213 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Picerno
2W-0D-4L
AWAY US Latina
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
30.11.2024 US Latina US Latina 2-0 HT 2-0 Picerno Picerno İTC
23.03.2024 Picerno Picerno 0-2 HT 0-2 US Latina US Latina İTC
18.11.2023 US Latina US Latina 0-3 HT 0-1 Picerno Picerno İTC
19.02.2023 Picerno Picerno 1-0 HT 1-0 US Latina US Latina İTC
18.10.2022 US Latina US Latina 1-0 HT 0-0 Picerno Picerno İTC
15.02.2022 Picerno Picerno 0-2 HT 0-1 US Latina US Latina İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Picerno
1-2
AWAY US Latina
70% Ball Possession 30%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Picerno vs US Latina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

US Latina squeezed past Picerno 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Picerno at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Picerno had 70% of the ball to US Latina's 30%, shots finished 8-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, US Latina led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Picerno and 1.17 for US Latina.

What was the final score of Picerno vs US Latina?

Picerno 1-2 US Latina in the Italy - Serie C on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Picerno vs US Latina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Picerno win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Picerno 49%, draw 30%, US Latina 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Picerno) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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