Rot-Weiss Essen 4-2 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 12 Apr 2025

Rot-Weiss Essen
4-2 HT 2-1
Erzgebirge Aue
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2024/2025

Rot-Weiss Essen vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.91
Over
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.53
2-3
41%
1.85
4-5
23%
3.54
6+
10%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.52
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
11%
13.75
X/1
18%
4.52
X/2
6%
8.17
X/X
11%
5.04
2/1 ✗
9%
23.75
2/2
12%
6.24
2/X
7%
14.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.75 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-5.3pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.5pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+1.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rot-Weiss Essen v Erzgebirge Aue — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 28%
-4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -7%
2.06/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.82
+21% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.8 Crosses 17.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Rot-Weiss Essen vs Erzgebirge Aue Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
389 Passes 383
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 2-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
19.01.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 0-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
20.08.2023 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 1-1 HT 1-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
11.03.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 HT 2-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
02.09.2022 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
20.04.2007 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL2

Rot-Weiss Essen 4-2 Erzgebirge Aue — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
4-2
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
276 Passes 281
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
9 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rot-Weiss Essen vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rot-Weiss Essen got the better of Erzgebirge Aue 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rot-Weiss Essen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Rot-Weiss Essen had 49% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 51%, shots finished 18-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 1.33 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiss Essen vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Rot-Weiss Essen 4-2 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rot-Weiss Essen vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rot-Weiss Essen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rot-Weiss Essen 45%, draw 29%, Erzgebirge Aue 26%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
12 Apr 2025
15:00 Hansa Rostock vs Verl Analysis →
15:00 Dynamo Dresden vs Osnabrück Analysis →
15:00 Ingolstadt vs Hannover 96 II Analysis →
15:00 Unterhaching vs Stuttgart II Analysis →
17:45 Alemannia Aachen vs Sandhausen Analysis →