Hessen Kassel 1-0 SGV Freiberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
39%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
11%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
45%
-12.6pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.1pp
39%
Away Win
30%
+8.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.0pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hessen Kassel EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 34%
-12% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +4%
1.27/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.61
-24% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
379 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hessen Kassel
0W-2D-3L
AWAY SGV Freiberg
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
5 Yellow Cards 2
12.10.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
20.04.2024 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-1 HT 0-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
14.10.2023 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 1-2 HT 1-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
04.03.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-0 HT 1-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
26.08.2022 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 0-0 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hessen Kassel squeezed past SGV Freiberg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 29% / 39% — and on the day Hessen Kassel made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Hessen Kassel and 1.00 for SGV Freiberg.

What was the final score of Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg?

Hessen Kassel 1-0 SGV Freiberg in the Germany - Regional League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hessen Kassel vs SGV Freiberg?

Before kick-off our model rated an SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Hessen Kassel 32%, draw 29%, SGV Freiberg 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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