Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities
Mainz 05 v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals
Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Mainz 05 0-1 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics
Freiburg nicked a narrow win over Mainz 05 1-0 on the road. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Mainz 05 at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The one blemish: both teams to score (55%) never looked like landing.
The match data tells the story: Mainz 05 had 51% of the ball to Freiburg's 49%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.55 to 0.61.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.50 for Freiburg.
Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Result & Final Score
Mainz 05 0 - 1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Mainz 05 vs Freiburg Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 43%, draw 31%, Freiburg 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mainz 05), BTTS Yes went the other way.