Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 Verl — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 12 Apr 2026

Erzgebirge Aue
1-1 HT 0-1
Verl
📅12/04/2026 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2025/2026

Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
54%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.38
Over 2.5
63%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.53
No
39%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
7.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
6.13
1/2 EV+ ✗
17%
19.8
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
6%
8.85
X/2
16%
4.57
X/X
6%
6.05
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
21%
2.23
2/X
6%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.8 — our 17% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
24%
+3.1pp
19%
Draw
23%
-4.0pp
54%
Away Win
53%
+1.0pp
37%
Under 2.5
38%
-0.6pp
63%
Over 2.5
62%
+0.6pp
61%
BTTS Yes
61%
-0.5pp
39%
BTTS No
39%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzgebirge Aue v Verl — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Verl EU Bookmakers 57%
+10% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.16/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.78
-9% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / -24%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
232 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
17.6 Crosses 22.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Verl
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
249 Passes 584
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.11.2025 Verl Verl 1-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
26.04.2025 Verl Verl 5-1 HT 4-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
30.11.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-5 HT 2-4 Verl Verl AL3
13.04.2024 Verl Verl 3-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
03.11.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-2 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
15.04.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 2-3 HT 0-1 Verl Verl AL3

Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 Verl — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1-1
AWAY Verl
27% Ball Possession 73%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 10
170 Passes 612
66% Pass Accuracy 88%
16 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue and Verl couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Verl at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (61%) landed while over 2.5 goals (63%) missed.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 27% of the ball to Verl's 73%, shots finished 8-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Verl led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 3.17 for Verl.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?

Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 Verl in the Germany - 3rd Division on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Verl?

Before kick-off our model rated an Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 27%, draw 19%, Verl 54%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Verl), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Verl) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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