Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melbourne City v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Melbourne City
AVUS
3-0
HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix
AVUK
Melbourne City 2-0 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne City beat Wellington Phoenix 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Melbourne City had 49% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 51%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 2.47 to 0.36.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Melbourne City and 0.50 for Wellington Phoenix.
What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Melbourne City 2-0 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 12/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 49%, draw 24%, Wellington Phoenix 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.