Cruz Azul vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cruz Azul v Leon — Team-Based Signals
Cruz Azul vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Leon
MEK
0-0
HT 0-0
Cruz Azul
MEK
Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics
Cruz Azul squeezed past Leon 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Cruz Azul had 52% of the ball to Leon's 48%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.61 to 0.81.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.00 for Leon.
What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Leon?
Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 12/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Leon?
Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 51%, draw 25%, Leon 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.