Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 May 2025

📅12/05/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.97
Over 2.5
58%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.53
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.17
6+ Goals
13%
11.0
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.17 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.3
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1
11%
4.4
X/2
9%
9.15
X/X
9%
5.33
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.45
2/2
8%
7.04
2/X
7%
15.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.45 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+1.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
47%
-4.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
53%
+4.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.72/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.51
-9% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 81%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.6 Crosses 13.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Leon
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.68 xG 0.98
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
383 Passes 326
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.05.2025 Leon Leon 2-3 HT 1-3 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
16.04.2025 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
15.09.2024 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
22.02.2024 Leon Leon 2-3 HT 0-2 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
29.10.2023 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 1-0 Leon Leon MEK
09.04.2023 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
2-1
AWAY Leon
1.61 xG 0.81
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
373 Passes 332
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul squeezed past Leon 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 52% of the ball to Leon's 48%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 1.61 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Leon?

Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 12/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 51%, draw 25%, Leon 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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